الفهرس 
INTRODUCTIONOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Recently, many governments in both developing and developed countries have adopted the public-private partnership (PPP) procurement method increasingly and widely as it proves its competence in huge projects with long periods, such as infrastructure projects, because of the efficiency of the private sector in managing project risks and controlling the project totally with high experience and recent technologies at quite low costs. However, in many developing countries, there is a lack of a holistic, systematic approach to decision support in these projects that depends on scientific techniques. A reasonable concession period is one of the most critical aspects that contribute to the success of a PPP project. The determination of the concession period in a PPP significantly impacts a firm’s revenue. Hence, estimating the optimal period of concession for PPP projects is a must. This thesis presents a novel approach for concession period assessment in PPP projects, incorporating the interests of both parties and introducing a distinct treatment of risk and the time value of money through a separate net present value of risk. The proposed model leverages system dynamics methodology and comprises two distinct subsystems: one for public sector processes and the other for private sector processes. Implementation of this model is facilitated using AnyLogic simulation software. To validate its effectiveness, the model is applied to a real-world case study, the New Cairo wastewater treatment plant project in Egypt. The findings highlight that income fluctuations play a pivotal role in estimating the optimal duration for PPP projects. Based on the results, the private sector can curtail availability payment while still attaining profitable outcomes, meeting their expected return on investment during the concession period of the project. In alignment with this, the VFM exceeds zero, indicating that the PPP system surpasses the traditional financing system for the public sector in this project. Furthermore, the findings indicated that the decrease in the availability payment gives a good chance for both sectors to catch benefits over a longer period, in contrast with the increase in availability payment. Moreover, in the context of risk-DNPV, which employs a risk-free discount rate, the private sector can realize profits earlier and at a higher rate compared to the traditional net present value (NPV) makes it a more accurate approach. This model enhances the comprehension of processes within each sub-model for both the public and private sectors, offering valuable insights to decision-makers when evaluating project feasibility.