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Abstract
A semi-quantitative approach was used to assess the risks of the wide scale spread of Avian Influenza virus subtype H5N1 from single epidemiological unit to other units, and to human and animal contacts. ’Village’ and ’Farm’ were considered epidemiological units representing the household and commercial poultry production sectors, respectively. The risks were identified by analyzing the disease control policies, sources of infections, and the poultry production value chains. Each risk was subjected for release, exposure and consequence assessments to generate the overall risk rating. The results revealed that no risk was rated as very high regarding the wide scale disease spread from village level to other epidemiological units. Marketing infected birds from quarantine and nursery farms, live poultry congregation sites, and the part time and wholesale workers, are the main risks associated with the wide scale disease spread among farms, and from farms to villages. The wholesale congregation sites play a major role in the virus amplification and spread among birds before reaching the retail markets