الفهرس 
Evaluation of a Mining Project Exposed to Uncertainty Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods: Case Study of Abu Tartur Phosphate Mining Project, Egypt
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Abstract
Mining project evaluation is a complicated process and time-consuming task.
Any mining project passes through several study stages, like conceptual, preliminary
feasibility, and feasibility studies, using a systematic and standard approach. These
studies allow investors to evaluate the exploitations alternatives according to economic
and technical criteria to make a better decision. This research aims to study a model for
investment risk analysis developed for the case study of ”Abu Tartur mining project,
Egypt.” Abu Tartur plateau is rich with phosphate rock, turned into phosphoric acid and
fertilizers. This study used site-specific data that has been taken from the literature to
build evaluation models using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and the Binomial
Decision Tree (BDT) methods. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is considered a
benchmark method for all other evaluation methods. The MCS method uses a set of
parameters that, in some cases, will give a higher NPV of the project and some others
with lower values, but this depends on the probability of the input parameters. The
developed evaluation models provided a specific range of values, with confidence
intervals as the MCS model. The advantage of using a probabilistic approach helps in the
decisional phase, allowing for a more precise overview of the variability of the final
economic value of the mine. Deterministic met