الفهرس 
IntroductionOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Floods due to dam break constitute a potential hazard to life and property at downstream area. During the recent decades, several catastrophes have happened due to the dam breaks at various locations in the world. The actual failure modes are not well understood for either earthen or concrete dams. In previous attempts to predict the downstream flooding due to dam failures, it was usually assumed that the dam failed suddenly. The loss of human life and property due to Dam break depended on extent of inundation area, size of population at risk, the propagation of flood waves and the amount of warning time available. The prediction of dam break flood hydrograph is very important for dam safety analysis. Controlling downstream developments, evacuation planning, assessment the damage due to dam break and the propagation of flood waves are additional benefits. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is located at 20 km upstream of the Ethiopian–Sudaness border on Blue Nile River. GERD break may be occurred due to many different reasons such as structural instability, overtopping and seepage. Earthquakes, landslide and sabotage can be leads to insidious GERD break. Outflow hydrographs due to GERD break were obtained by HEC-RAS model. The Blue Nile and the Nile River downstream of GERD until the AHD is simulated using SOBEK 1D-2D model. The related data were collected to simulate and analyze GERD break hazard. A risk assessment of the GERD break is obtained. The flood wave propagation is found in terms of inundations maps. The flood water levels and arrival time downstream GERD to AHD is achieved. The results of this investigation could be used to help decision makers to prepare an emergency plan and warning systems to rescue the affected downstream area and to put an evacuate plan.