الفهرس | Only 14 pages are availabe for public view |
Abstract The climate change (CC) and related potential sea level rise (SLR) becomes a global issue and considered as a real challenge all over the world. This study aims to assess the potential impact of the expected SLR due to climate change on the coastal areas of the state of Kuwait and how existing coastal facilities and futuredevelopment projects may be affected. And ultimately propose a strategy and plans for adaptation to SLR. To achieve the main objective of this study, the scientific techniques of the geographic information systems (GIS) coupled with remote sensing (RS) were utilized to collect, analyze, and model the relevant data to build flooding model application. Five (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 meters) SLR scenarios were developed to examine the potential impacts of SLR on the coastline of Kuwaiti governorates and Islands (Warba, Bubiyan and Faylakah). In this study the urbanization trend in Kuwait coastline was identified using historical Land sat imagery dated 1990, 2001 and 2006 and historical imagery from Google Earth dated 2002, 2006 and 2013. Also, the tourist maps (urban areas) data, in two different dates; 1999 and 2004 was used, in addition to the field survey. It was shown that the anthropogenic changes are significant in the form of residential areas such as Jaber Al Ahmad, North West Al-Sulibikhat Area and Sabah AL-Ahmad Marine City (The Pearl Lagoons). After applying the flooding scenario for a potential SLR of 1 meter to determine the most vulnerable areas, It was found that there are three low-lying coastal areas at risk, Zone (A): Warba, Bubiyan and Failaka Islands, Zone (B): Al- Sabiyah area and north Kuwait bay and Zone (C): Bnaider, Al-Zour and Al- Kheran areas). The results of estimating inundated areas in all Kuwaiti governorates by different potential SLR scenarios indicate that the AL- Jahra governorate will be the most impacted (59.93 km2) at 1meter SLR. Al-Ahmadi governorate will be the second in losing its coastal area (17.7 km2). Finally, Al-Asimah governorate will be the least under 1meter SLR (0.7 km2). Also, the total area of the state of Kuwait that might be lost under different SLR scenarios varies from 77.33 km2 due to 1 m scenario to about 220.82 km2 due to 2 m scenario and 387.65km2 due to 3 m scenario. Also, it will reach about 578km2 due to 4m scenario and it will reach maximum 656.05km2 under 5 m SLR scenario. Furthermore it was found that several vital installations will be at risk due to 1 meter SLR scenario such as; Subiyah Thermal Power Plant, Doha East Power and Water Station, Doha Port, North Shuaibapier port, Sabah Al-Ahmad Marine City(Pearl Lagoons). In addition, 1 meter SLR scenario will have significant impact on Kuwait coastal future development and on Boubyan Island and its future developed projects such as; Mubark Al- Kabeer reserve, Bubiyan Lagoon and Resorts. Finally, we used the study results for 1 meter SLR scenarioalong with Land sat satellite images (2006), urban and development projects map (2013) and third master plan of Kuwait (2005) to propose a strategy and plan for adaptation to the potential SLR on the existing vital installations and to select the suitable sites for future proposed facilities within Kuwait master plan. It is recommended to consider the degree of inundation due to different SLR scenario to ensure the security of existing vital installations and sustainability of the future coastal development activities in the state of Kuwait. |