الفهرس | يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام |
المستخلص The Study is divided into three main chapters as the following: Chapter One: COMESA Origin, Organizational chart and related institutions This chapter tackles the origin of the COMESA community and the, concepts related to limited currency convertibility, as well as the optimal currency area. This chapter is divided into three sections: Section I: COMESA Origin from a Historical Perspective The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) was established under the agreement reached at Kampala Conference held in Uganda in ٥ November ١٩٩٣, under which the COMESA replaced the Preferential Trade Area (PTA). The COMESA consists of ١٩ countries: Burundi, Comoros, Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The COMESA objectives are represented in cooperation between the member countries in several fields: free trade and customs cooperation, monetary and financial affairs, encouraging and protecting investment, industry, agriculture, energy, and transportations and communications. This Section also refers to the COMESA organizational structure which is composed of the following bodies: ١- Authority: the top presidential system in the COMESA, composed of presidents of states and governments, and responsible for the general policy of the community and supervising its performance of its executive functions, objectives and principles. ٢- Ministerial Council: composed of ministers specified and selected by the member countries, and responsible for supervising and managing the community’s activities, as well as developing these activities and approving the secretariat budget. ٣- Committee of Governors of Central Banks: composed of governors of central banks of the member countries, and responsible for developing programs and plans in the fields of financial and monetary cooperation. ٤- Government Committee: responsible for developing programs and work plans in all sectors of cooperation, excluding the financial and monetary sector. ٥- Technical Committees: responsible for many tasks, such as those related to administrative, financial, legal, agricultural and others. Examples of these committees include: Committee of Financial and Monetary Affairs, Committee of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates, Committee of Human Resources, Committee of Statistical Affairs, and Committee of Energy. Secretariat and Secretary General: the Secretary General is considered a secretary for the Authority and the Ministerial Council, and is responsible for managing the COMESA and representing it in the periodical meetings. Consultative Committee: composed of businesspersons and other interested communities. The Section also mentions the COMESA affiliate and subsidiary authorities and institutions since the signing of the COMESA establishing agreement in November ١٩٩٣ till now. These are as follows: ١- Regional Investment Agency (RIA) It was established in ٢٠٠٦ with the aim of making the COMESA region attractive for regional and international investments in the long term; encouraging investment and building capacities; and helping the member countries to create an appropriate investment climate that is capable of attracting foreign direct investments (FDI). ٢- PTA Bank It was established in ١٩٨٥ with the purpose of providing financial support necessary to achieve development in the COMESA region through presenting medium- and long-term loans. It also acts as credit intermediary between the member countries and the international financial organizations. ٣- COMESA Clearing House (CCH) It was established in ١٩٨٤ in order to settle commercial payments resulting from trade exchanges between the member countries. The settlement is carried out through the Regional Payment and Settlement System (REPSS) which settles payments among the member countries on a daily basis via using the national currencies of the countries using it, and using the US dollar or the euro as an intermediary currency for final settlement. ٤- COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI) It was established in ٢٠٠٨ with the aim of conducting technical studies necessary for presenting assistance in implementing the agreed monetary cooperation program; following up the preliminary stages of forming the monetary union; and making recommendations for the Committee of Governors of Central Banks. ٥- Reinsurance Company It was established in ١٩٩٠ as an affiliate company of the PTA Bank with the purpose of encouraging intra-trade and integration among the COMESA member countries through conducting insurance and reinsurance operations on the commercial activities to guarantee a highquality commercial and banking service. ٦- African Trade Insurance (ATI) It was established in ٢٠٠١ as a multi-national financial institution aiming to transforming the risks in Africa into real opportunities for trade and investment. This is to be done through presenting insurance services on credit granted to exports against political risks. It also presents insurance services on investment. ٧- Leather and Leather Products Institute (LLPI) It was established in ١٩٩٠ with the aim of developing the leather industry in the COMESA member countries. Section II : Different Concepts of Limited Currency Convertibility These concepts are as the following: ١- No Currency Convertibility: which means the impossibility of substituting a country’s currency for another currency within the same community, or using it in marketing external transactions. ٢- Limited Currency Convertibility: which means the possibility of substituting a country’s currency for other currencies, and the possibility of imposing some restrictions on external trade and invisible transactions only against countries outside the region. ٣- Full Currency Convertibility: which means that any restrictions on all transactions are not allowed whether these transactions are commercial, invisible or capital. This requires the currency to be convertible against all other currencies, and not necessarily against those of the countries inside the region. ٤- Currency Convertibility according to Obligations of Article ٨ of the IMF’s Agreement: this degree of convertibility allows imposing some restrictions on all transactions (commercial, capital, or invisible), but it does not allow imposing any restrictions on substitution. It does not necessarily require the convertibility of a country’s currency against all other currencies or the currencies inside the region. This Section also deals with the conditions necessary for achieving limited currency convertibility. These conditions are represented in the importance of adopting adequate policies on the macroeconomic level (monetary and financial policies); achieving an adequate competitive exchange rate; the availability of an adequate level of international reserves with the authorities; and efficient allocation of available resources. Section III: Optimal Currency Area (OCA) This Section tackles the conditions necessary for the achievement of an optimal currency area. These conditions are represented in the similarity of economic cycles of the member countries; flexibility in determining salaries and prices; ease of transmission of production factors among member countries; and the availability of a system for monetary transfers among the member countries. This section also reviews the pros and cons relating to joining the optimal currency area. As for the pros, the single currency plays an important role in facilitating the transmission of goods and services and assets among the monetary union countries. It also reduces the cost of commercial transactions in goods and services, and facilitates the movements of capitals among the monetary union countries. As regards the cons, joining a single currency area implies in the first place losing a country’s monetary independence, especially in relation to implementation of the monetary policy, and to a lesser degree in relation to independent financial policy. Generally, the single currency is seen as one of the most important fruits of economic integration among the member countries in any community. This is due to the benefits of establishing a single currency on the micro and macro levels. Among these benefits are: joining a common market to benefit from the different advantages relating to the big size of the market; benefiting from production opportunities on a large scale, and thus benefiting from large-scale economies; as well as providing more options for customers and more competitive prices, as different from the member countries in a common market without a single currency. Chapter Two: Evaluation of The COMESA Monetary Cooperation Program – This chapter deals with the CMOESA Monetary Cooperation Program, and the assessing of the economic performance of the COMESA member states in accordance with the agreed criteria set in the monetary cooperation program at the end of the First Stage of this program ٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠. Also, the chapter refers to the obstacles facing the achievement of monetary integration among the COMESA countries, and the positive areas to go from. Hence, this chapter is divided into four sections: Section I: Evaluation of the CMOESA Monetary Cooperation Program This Section deals with the COMESA monetary cooperation program as one of the issues on the agenda of monetary cooperation. This program consists of primary and secondary criteria which are to be implemented through three time periods, progressing from one stage to the other and becoming more restrictive in the later stages, to end in ٢٠١٨ with the issuance of an African single currency. It is worthy mentioning that the primary criteria of the COMESA monetary program are as the following: ١- The budget deficit (excluding grants) as a percentage of GDP does not exceed ٥%. ٢- Annual inflation rate does not exceed ٥%. ٣- Reducing the Central Bank’s finance of the budget to zero. ٤- International reserves cover at least ٤ months of merchandise imports (excluding non-factor revenues). Section II: Assessing Economic Performance for the COMESA Countries at End of the First Stage of Monetary Cooperation Program (٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠) After the end of the first stage of the COMESA monetary cooperation program (٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠), the performance of the COMESA member countries was generally unsatisfactory as regards both the primary and secondary criteria. The status of implementation for the countries was assessed in relation to eight numerical criteria (٣ primary criteria and ٥ secondary ones) in addition to criteria relating to the exchange rate and the interest rate, as well as the central bank finance of the budget deficit. The assessment reveals that no country has managed to finish the first stage achieving all the eight criteria. Also, it points out that Eritrea was the only country which did not achieve any of the criteria, and that Burundi and Comoros achieved only two criteria of the total. The best performance was that of Djibouti which achieved ٦ criteria from a total of ٨ criteria, followed by Rwanda, Libya and Mauritius which achieved ٥ criteria, then Ethiopia, Zambia and Swaziland (٤ criteria), and the rest (٩ countries) achieved ٣ criteria. Section III: Obstacles Facing the Achievement of Monetary Integration among the COMESA Countries. There are several obstacles facing the monetary integration process in the COMESA region. These obstacles can be summarized as follows: ١- General Obstacles - Weak political commitment - Diversified and Interrelated African communities - Weak awareness and participation, and absence of a mechanism for enforcement of penalties - Excessive connection to foreign countries ٢- Obstacles relating to Convergence Criteria of the Monetary Cooperation Program - Some convergence criteria are unrealistic. - Weak legal and institutional arrangements in the COMESA region - Weak commitment to programs and effective participation - Increased burdens on the financial sector Positive Areas to Go from Enhancing and supporting the Regional Payment and Settlement System (REPSS) Activating the role of the African Trade Insurance (ATI) agency Increasing the capital of the PTA Bank Chapter Three: A Comparative Study with the European Union This chapter deals three sections Section I: EU experience and Factors of Success ١- Origin of European Union ٢- Delor Committee and Maastricht Agreement and Monetary Union ٣- Stages of Monetary Union and Establishment of European Central Bank (ECB) - Stage One: ١ July ١٩٩٠ – ٣١ December ١٩٩٣ - Stage Two: ١ January ١٩٩٤ – early ١٩٩٩ - Stage Three: ١٩٩٩ ٤- EU Monetary Cooperation Program ٥- European System of Central Banks (ESCB) - Executive Board - Council of Governors - General Assembly ٦- Factors of Success of EU Experience - Gradual achievement of monetary union - Meeting the convergence criteria among macroeconomic indicators - Independence of the ECB from other central banks of member countries - Availability of political support and national desire Section II: Assessing the Economic Performance of the COMESA Member States in Accordance with the Convergence Criteria of the EU Monetary Cooperation Program. The assessment of the COMESA member countries in accordance with the EU monetary cooperation program was as the following: Inflation not exceeding ١.٥ percentage point from inflation in three member countries with the least inflation rates: ١٦ COMESA countries did not achieve this criterion, while ٣ countries achieved it; namely, Zimbabwe (١.٥%), Libya (٣.٣%) and Comoros (٣.٩%). Government budget deficit not exceeding ٣% as a percentage of GDP: only Djibouti achieved this criterion (٠.٥%), and the remaining ١٨ countries did not achieve it. Total public debt not exceeding ٦٠% of GDP: ١٠ COMESA member countries did not achieve this criterion at end of the first stage in ٢٠١٠, and they even did not manage to achieve it in any year during the first stage (except for Congo DR which recorded ٦٤.٥% in ٢٠١٠ only, but it exceeded the criterion in the remaining years). On the other hand, ٩ COMESA member countries did not exceed the ٦٠% set in the criterion with the end of the first stage in ٢٠١٠, of which ٣ countries managed not to exceed this percentage along the first stage. Section III : Proposed Econometric test The test was carried out on five economic criteria from the criteria of the COMESA monetary cooperation program: inflation, international reserves, domestic liquidity (money supply), growth rate, and exchange rates. This was done to specify the countries among which there can be a monetary integration in the long term. It was difficult to select one of the financial criteria because of the difficulty in obtaining financial data for the COMESA member countries for long periods and in the form of time series which can enable the carrying out of the test and reaching highly reliable results. The data of Zimbabwe was excluded from the test on the inflation criterion due to unavailable data of this criterion during ٢٠٠٣-٢٠٠٨. Also, Zimbabwe was excluded from the test carried out on the criterion of exchange rate because the fluctuations in the exchange rates of Zimbabwe exceeded ١٠٠٠% in many times. Congo DR and Djibouti were excluded due to unavailability of sufficient observations to carry out the test on the criterion of international reserves. The test results were as the following: ١- For the inflation criterion, integration is accepted between only three countries: Egypt, Burundi and Uganda. ٢- For the international reserves criterion, integration is accepted between only four countries: Egypt, Burundi, Libya and Mauritius. ٣- For the growth rate criterion, integration is accepted between only four countries: Congo DR, Ethiopia, Malawi and Sudan. ٤- For the exchange rate criterion, integration is accepted between fourteen countries: Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Zambia, Malawi, Rwanda, Seychelles, Swaziland, Uganda, and Mauritius. |